Article 180 1.

institutions shall estimate PDs by obligor grade from long run averages of one-year default rates. PD estimates for obligors that are highly leveraged or for obligors whose assets are predominantly traded assets shall reflect the performance of the underlying assets based on periods of stressed volatilities;

for purchased corporate receivables institutions may estimate the EL by obligor grade from long run averages of one-year realised default rates;

if an institution derives long run average estimates of PDs and LGDs for purchased corporate receivables from an estimate of EL, and an appropriate estimate of PD or LGD, the process for estimating total losses shall meet the overall standards for estimation of PD and LGD set out in this part, and the outcome shall be consistent with the concept of LGD as set out in Article 181(1)(a);

institutions shall use PD estimation techniques only with supporting analysis. Institutions shall recognise the importance of judgmental considerations in combining results of techniques and in making adjustments for limitations of techniques and information;

to the extent that an institution uses data on internal default experience for the estimation of PDs, the estimates shall be reflective of current underwriting standards and of any differences in the rating system that generated the data and the current rating system; where underwriting standards or rating systems have changed, after including an appropriate adjustment, the institution shall add a greater margin of conservatism in its estimate of PD related to the expected range of estimation errors that is not already covered by the appropriate adjustment;

to the extent that an institution associates or maps its internal grades to the scale used by an ECAI or similar organisations and then attributes the default rate observed for the external organisation's grades to the institution's grades, mappings shall be based on a comparison of internal rating criteria to the criteria used by the external organisation and on a comparison of the internal and external ratings of any common obligors. Biases or inconsistencies in the mapping approach or underlying data shall be avoided. The criteria of the external organisation underlying the data used for quantification shall be oriented to default risk only and not reflect transaction characteristics. The analysis undertaken by the institution shall include a comparison of the default definitions used, subject to the requirements in Article 178. The institution shall document the basis for the mapping;

to the extent that an institution uses statistical default prediction models it is allowed to estimate PDs as the simple average of default-probability estimates for individual obligors in a given grade. The institution's use of default probability models for this purpose shall meet the standards specified in Article 174;

irrespective of whether an institution is using external, internal, or pooled data sources, or a combination of the three, for its PD estimation, the length of the underlying historical observation period used shall be at least five years for at least one source;

irrespective of the method used to estimate PD, institutions shall estimate a PD for each rating grade based on the observed historical average one-year default rate that is an arithmetic average based on the number of obligors (count weighted); other approaches, including exposure-weighted averages, shall not be permitted.